The World Cup Mission and the Revolution

Egypt has qualified to participate in just one World Cup soccer tournament since 1934.  This, notwithstanding the country having a highly talented player pool, one of the oldest soccer federations, largest populations  and most passionate fan bases on the continent.  The reasons for this failure are educational in observing the ebbs and flows of events in Egypt since last January. 

Awaiting greatness 

Like the mass demonstrations of Tahrir, there is real energy, passion and potential in Egyptian football that can make an impact, but there is also chronically haphazard organization, unstable leadership and a tendency to allow emotions to overtake performance holding things back.  There is always a "what-if" feeling about how some young star or group of players could have been great, but for being ill-nurtured by the surrounding chaos.  The forty day league stoppages to allow a group of junior players to prepare to play a friendly match, ad-hoc club decisions to pull out of tournaments, nutty decisions to grant “exclusive” licenses to televise matches to half a dozen stations, and players bowing in prayer after scoring goals on handballs or breaking down into uncontrollable bouts of tears after an adverse decision or insult from the even more emotional crowd, have all contributed to a record of underachievement. 

Orwell Would be Proud

Egypt’s interior ministry says “heavenly coincidence” Jan 25 anniversary, police day come together

Cause is Effect.  Effect is Cause.

Ammu Kamal

Today, Egypt lost one of its good souls.  May the good Lord reward him for his life of generosity and kindness. 

The IMF and Egypt - Helping Egypt Help Itself

In all of the desperate grasping for how Egypt can be saved from the abyss of an impoverished, Islamist tyranny, the long overdue turn of the Egyptian government to the International Monetary Fund presents an opportunity for the world to help Egypt help itself. Apart from plugging a hole in the country’s finances – caused largely by haphazard decision and indecision of the successive interim governments over the past year – IMF-linked structural reforms offer an avenue for sustained change in Egypt.

Egypt's Team

Of the People.  By the People.  For the People.

Rabbis Not Welcome: From Abu Hasira to Jesus to Tyranny

Another Jewish Rabbi in Egypt

The decision to cancel the annual celebration in the Nile Delta of the 19th century Jewish rabbi Abu Hasira is troubling.  Though there are certain, justifiable concerns with securing an event attended by a few hundred orthodox Jews in an obscure location (even if those concerns are exaggerated, given the long-standing presence of the festival and participation of Muslim Egyptians in it), the fact of the decision being driven by, and celebrated as a victory for, the "revolutionaries" speaks volumes about the motivations of the purported national liberators.  All concerned with freedom of religion and thought, should take note. 

Obama's Egypt: An Exclusionary Christmas



Copts

Even when he tries to appear accommodating to a Christian community whom he has dangerously undermined through his wrong-headed policies, he gets it wrong.  In offering Christmas greetings to Coptic Orthodox Christians, President Obama is specifically excluding all non-Orthodox Copts also celebrating Christmas on January 7, and reinforcing the very prejudices that he claims to want to help Egypt overcome.  Copts are Egyptians, and Egyptians are Copts, not just Orthodox, and not even just Christians.  All are celebrating the birth of Jesus.  

Who is advising this guy?   

Why Egypt Still Has Hope - Reason #2



Re-nationalization: A Cotton Pickin' Mess!

Egypt's white gold

Buried under the endless commentary of the recent violence in Egypt (but not lost on investors), a decision taken by an administrative court to annul the sale of shares of a then state-owned cotton ginning company threatens to cause far more lasting damage than any demonstrations, election results or political figurehead. Taken within the context of an already toxic mix of a fiscal crisis, unstable leadership and the urge for short-term, populist policymaking, this decision (still hopefully to be overturned) sets the stage for complete economic chaos. 

The ruling itself is based on vague allegations of an undervaluation of assets and even more vague allegations of corruption, and follows a troubling trend of similarly statist edits from imprecise, activist judges (encouraged/directed, no doubt, by military insiders seeking to reassert their total control over the private sector, incompetent interim governments, as well as misguided activists in their fanciful mission against the bourgeois). Left totally unanswered are questions of how to redeem shares held and traded by the wider public and workers (who as per most Egyptian privatizations, were granted a significant stake of floated shares as an incentive to participate as part owners in their company), and the impact on creditors. Egypt's reeling stock market is being further damaged, and the uncertainty of the decision further undermines the already compromised credibility of the country's investment climate.

Why Egypt Still Has Hope - Reason #1

Buy Egyptian?

 

Not to be confused with the evil import

If the latest gimmick to jump start the dormant Egyptian economy is a sign of things to come, then we are in big trouble. No matter how many bags of kebab-flavored Chipsy (owned by Pepsico) are munched, nor colorful galabaya are purchased (typically with imported, short-staple cotton, since higher quality long-staple Egyptian cotton is used in higher end goods that are exported and produce much more value added), the “Buy Egypt” campaign will do nothing to address the structural deficiencies in the economic system. 



Mmmm

Worse, the campaign is a reflection of the quick-fix, delusional and autarkic thinking that looks to isolate Egypt from the global economy and create artificial markets, when it is precisely the opposite that is needed. Whether it is flawed ideas of disavowing foreign borrowing, fanciful and regressive notions of food self-sufficiency or grand, national schemes to create dead-end jobs, all of this is stifling the country’s potential and delaying badly needed reform.   

Brothers in Arms: Team Obama and the Muslim Brotherhood

Ughh

Senator John Kerry’s recent high-profile visit to the ostentatious new headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood (query the funding source) is the latest in the continuing outrages of the Obama Administration's placation of regressive Islamists. Never mind that the lower house election cycle in Egypt is only one-third complete. Never mind that secular forces naturally allied to U.S. ideals of civil and individual rights are being suffocated by religious demagogues of whom the Muslim Brotherhood are the patron saint. Never mind that U.S. attention and recognition remain decisive factors on the Egyptian political scene. The head of the Salafist party - supposedly distinct and separate from the supposedly moderate Brotherhood party - synthezied it all quite well: "[t]he American administration's contact with Islamists is a sign of victory for us." 

Message to Egyptian Revolutionaries: GET REAL!

So the experiment of populism has produced an unsurprisingly miserable outcome.  No need to whitewash the result through tortured reasoning about the differences between backward and even more backward brands of political Islam, the allocation of distant minority votes or trying to make sense of the idiosyncratic voting system.  Whatever feel-good factor was generated by the relatively high voter interest and participation, the landslide victory of the Islamists is a blow to the cause of the betterment of a progressive Egypt.     

This result should not be a surprise.  It is virtually exactly the same result as that of the constitutional referendum from last March.  The vote simply is a reflection of what Egypt has become over the past sixty years – a country lacking in economic growth, lacking in proper education, lacking in cultural openness, and a country that is highly susceptible to the corrupting influences of a paternalistic state and even more paternalistic and manipulative religious clergy.  The result is also unsurprising because it stems from an ill-considered process of political transformation driven by street demonstrations, Twitter feeds and idiotic political televangelists that cornered the ruling authorities into following quick-fix solutions to protect what will always matter most to them – maintaining a pliable status quo wherein they always come out on top.  And the result is unsurprising, because the brain-children in the White House fatally comprised the standing of secular forces in the region by naively (Team Obama is too ignorant to have done so intentionally) aiding-and-abetting the intractable rise of the Islamists.    

Get used to it

What is surprising, annoying, depressing and ultimately most damning to the cause of a progressively transformed Egypt, however, is the reaction of a wide spectrum of the self-appointed guardians of the defunct Egyptian “revolution.”  However well-intentioned and passionate, the ostrich-like vision of liberal activists to the trying circumstances surrounding them has been detrimental to the good cause.  The majority vote of the Egyptian populace will not be won during this election cycle, and it could not have been won. 

Ganzo for Life

A very wise, experienced, accountable, super prime minister. Sorry for those inappropriate criticisms made of your time in government (your governorship in Wadi El Gadeed in 1976 is exactly the sort of hand's-on experience the country needs to navigate through the turmoils of the international financial crisis, to communicate in the age of the internet and transition Egypt into a beacon of reform).

We love you so much, that this little election thing need not get in the way of your mandate to govern Egypt for life. Who says that landslide parliamentary elections (and anyway they will win less than 100% of the vote) should result in any mandate for the victors to appoint the head of the legislature - that is such a narrow-minded view.

May your reign be successful and long...very, very long.



The Visionary 



Ahly = Corruption in Egypt

Ahly are outdoing even their own, tainted standards by setting a new low on disparaging all norms of sporting behaviour.  Bailing out on the country's oldest competition for the sake of their new shirt sponsor is nothing short of reprehensible.  Let's see if their brothers-in-arms at Itihad El Zift will do anything about it; probably not, when there are clear and present dangers to worry about, such as using the excuse of controlling firecrackers in matches played by a certain, superior competitor, to ban home matches and further tilt the playing field.

Egypt will not progress so long as Ahly's corrupt ways remain.

Disgusting.

Not with Ahly around

Third Class

Appropriately, operator and sponsor daraga talta, for a team daraga talta.

Yet another reason to hate them

A Classless Mob

As always, Ahly and its classless fan base never cease to probe new depths of their corrupted and mob-like ways. And, as always, the blinded apologists are rationalizing the irrational.

Best Fans in the World

Up yours Ahly

Egypt and the BRICs

Inspiring Tahrir

Egypt has rejected (apparently) a $3 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund, goaded (apparently) by populist idiots who believe Egypt can become a socialist paradise on its own initiative. Never mind that the IMF standby loan facilities are specifically designed to stabilize economies that have undergone the sort of negative shock that Egypt is witnessing by offering front-loaded, low-interest loans. Never mind that Egypt’s ability to tap into the far more expensive bond market is highly limited by the depressed macroeconomic landscape, the Greek debacle and the very decision of not accepting loans from the World Bank Group. Fear not, for Egypt is separate and apart and can count on “freebies” from “friends” in the Gulf who will, surely without any condition (thanks for keeping the enlightened Sheikh Qaradawi safe in Doha and for inspiring progressive policies at our heathen beaches, hotels and shopping centers), shovel money into the country out of their (apparent) love for its culture and people.

At Least They Listen

So there will be no capital gains tax after all.  Hopefully, this will be a step in the right direction...assuming, that is, they mean what they say (or did not mean what they said before).

Economics 101: Tax Them, and They Won't Come

The brain-trust running Egyptian economic policy (assuming, that is, there actually is an economic policy) are, to be blunt, idiots. In the midst of halted growth and a near total collapse in domestic and foreign investor confidence, the Ministry of Finance has announced an intention to apply a ten percent capital gains tax and raise corporate taxes so as to fund the country’s notoriously inefficient system of subsidies on fuel and food staples. The result? A greater than three percent loss in equity values in the first hour of trading post announcement, higher bond yields and yet another hit to the credibility of the country’s financial reputation.

Then there is the bright idea of instituting a minimum wage increase that will set minimum pay above the average wages of many East Asian countries…surely something that will augment competitiveness and encourage investors to look to Egypt, given the already exciting investment climate of stagnant consumer spending, an industrial and service sector in recession and basically nothing to suggest the country is a more appealing investment destination than the already difficult place it was pre-January 25, apart from the vague foreign aid commitments that will further crowd out the private sector from the economy.

Protect the Copts

Nestled into the Egyptian landscape

More and more, all that is separating Egypt from descent into a total abyss is the simple existence of its indigenous Christian population. The continuing (it did not start in the past few months, but rather has been ongoing for centuries) efforts to plaster over Egypt’s Coptic community has far-reaching implications for the direction of a post January 25 Egypt. But for the presence of many millions of Copts (it’s ridiculous, we don’t know how many), the continuum of the Muslim Brotherhood – Salafists (don't know their numbers either, but there are too many directly and indirecly sympathizing with them) would have a far clearer path to imposing their regressive monopoly over Egyptian society. Ideally, one would not have to revert to such simplistic and anti-modern notions of nation building, but the depressed state of Egypt leads to this conclusion.

You Can't Make This Stuff Up!

For all the fretting about how the disjointed and basically hopeless opposition can break the seemingly unstoppable momentum of the Muslim Brotherhood and its mind-controlling P.R. machine, the best bet for defeat is to simply let these guys reveal themselves.  The Brotherhood’s ridiculous announcement of an intention to form a sporting arm that can field a team to play in national sporting competitions is a priceless platform for exposing its real limitations.  The day Egyptians abandon their love of Zamalek (and for those less fortunate ones, Ahly), or give up on the cathartic and decidedly unreligious practice of mass, dirty chants against the opposition, the referee and their respective mothers and sisters, is the day donkeys (the real kind, rather than the symbolic ones flapping about from time to time) will fly over Tahrir Square. 

Where Bin Laden is Missed

Peace and Love

So the same Muslim Brotherhood whom President Obama and his cheerleaders hopefully point to as forward thinking reformers who will create a new Middle East, and with whom a leadership in Egypt  continues to disturbingly accommodate, turn out to be rather ambiguous, if not outright remorseful and bitter, it would seem, about the death of a man who is an embodiment of hate and destruction.  In its own words, the Brotherhood's official statement about the "assassination" of "Sheikh" Osama Bin Laden (and women and children) makes not a single reference to this man's destructive legacy.  Instead, they moan and groan about the familiar and tired refrains about Western imperialism, Zionism, etc.  Such is the state of retardation and escapism among the Egyptian population, that this view sadly is not confined to just the Brotherhood, but in varying degrees, reflects the thinking of many Egyptians, including seemingly educated and Westernized ones, bitter that it does not fit into the comfortable storyline of a saintly uprising versus American-backed purveyors of suppression in the region. 

No more candy, please

Egypt is not exceptional. Unfortunately, those are four words practically no Egyptian or world observer of Egypt accepts, and the longer it takes for this reality to set in, the more torturous the path of reforming Egypt will be. From birth to the grave, Egyptians are fed a steady diet of self-edifying drivel about their uniqueness, based on everything from the civilization built up by the Pharaohs seven thousand years ago, to their supposedly superior ability to do anything and everything in modern times. The inconvenient truth of the chaos and underdevelopment that defines Egyptian life always is the fault of some sort of other (from either within or outside of Egypt), and the path forward is one that Egyptians can define without reference to lesser places like the United States, the entirety of Europe, India or China - which are still somehow widely considered less advanced - or anywhere else for that matter. Hence, the zig-zagging approach to drafting a new constitution, the obtuse definition of the relationship between state and religion, economic policies which, to be generous, can only be considered as idiosyncratic, and the omnipotent short cutting and rule bending of Egyptians on anything and everything.

The world, led by the United States, has reinforced this exceptionalism by playing along to and expanding the mantra of Egypt’s special role in the region. Thus, the tens and tens of billions of dollars in grants, debt relief and concessional loans that though well meaning, have retarded the country's economy, and kid-glove treatment on the blatant disregard of universal norms of respect for individual and minority rights by Egypt’s power structure (which structure extends far beyond a single leader or institution, but rather is the potent combination of the repressive central state and mob rule that has defined Egypt since 1952, and still does).