Friday, June 15, 2012

It was bound to happen...

The writing was on the wall for the phantom revolution from the outset. As inevitable as the events leading up to January 25 might have been, the outcome of the ensuing chaos was even more so. There was never a scenario of governance provided by the self-proclaimed revolutionaries that was even remotely plausible, and the powers-that-be knew so. Hysterical chants and mass gatherings calling for perpetual "revolution" do not buy credibility with most people, let alone a conservative, security-minded leadership. The "revolutionaries" never really developed the will or the capacity to engage with this leadership on a basis that the leadership would respond to, instead either wishing it away through mythological notions of “one hand,” or confronting it head-on in a pyrrhic struggle. The "revolutionaries" also never really connected with the masses, instead cocooning themselves in a Marxist wonderland that was convincing to no one other than themselves.   

Through it all, the "revolutionaries" made themselves irrelevant, leaving the stage to the medieval Islamists with whom it was not, is not and will never be possible to coexist in a modern society. And thus the inevitable has happened, and time has been called on the social experimentation of the past 18 months. 

The drivers for change in Egypt have not gone away -- the country is as ever in need of profound reform -- but the space to do so through rudderless mayhem has. Egyptians will find a way to make Egypt a better place. 

Shutting the door


  1. is the issue that the revolutionaries made themseleves irrelevant, or is it that overnight revolutionaries could not possibly compete with the brotherhood and salafists who have been there over the long duration building networks?


  2. The lack of time for preparation is a fair consideration, but there is little evidence to suggest that this movement had the elements to achieve tangible, positive results under any reasonable timeframe. It was always too naive and isolated from reality to not just challenge Islamists, but more generally to connect to Egyptians.